Investing in the stock market can be a wild roller coaster. You’ll have some really good days and you’ll have some really bad days. Nothing beats the sheer exhilaration of watching your holdings soar! And nothing is more crushing than losing hard earned money! The U.S. has been in a 7 year bull market. Since the lows of 2008, the S&P 500 has rebounded over 230%! While I don’t know if a recession is near or when it will happen, I think it is important to discuss how to survive a bear market.
Stock Market Boom And Bust
The U.S. stock market has been volatile over the past 90 years. Broadly speaking, a ‘correction’ is when the market falls 10% from its peak and a ‘bear market’ is when it falls 20% from the peak.
Over the past 40 years, the S&P 500 experienced four periods of 20% or greater declines:
- The 1980’s recession: 11/28/1980 – 08/12/1982 (622 days): -27.1%
- The 1987 crash: 08/25/1987 – 12/04/1987 (101 days): -33.5%
- The Dot Com bubble: 03/24/2000 – 10/09/2002 (929 days): -49.1%
- The Great Recession: 10/09/2007 – 03/09/2009 (517 days): -56.8%
Further, over the past six years, the S&P 500 experienced four corrections!
- 04/23/10 – 07/20/10 (70 days): -16.0%
- 04/29/11 – 10/30/11 (157 days): -19.4%
- 05/21/15 – 08/25/15 (96 days): -12.4%
- 11/03/15 – 02/11/16 (100 days): -13.3%
Wow! Those are some crazy declines…no wonder some people are afraid the stock market! Check out this table from Yardeni Research to get a list of all of the S&P 500 bear markets and corrections dating back to 1928.
How To Survive A Bear Market
While you never know when a bear market or recession will occur, investors should always be mentally and financially prepared to survive one. Preparation is key to success.
Here are some ways to make it out stronger:
1. Be prepared to lose A LOT of money
70% of successful investing is all about emotional control. More specifically, don’t lose your cool in times of volatility or downward market movement. This is why the most successful investors aren’t necessarily those with the highest I.Q. Even geniuses like Isaac Newton have lost millions in the market!
If we enter into a bear market, you should automatically assume you will lose a ton of money–I’m talking about a 40%+ decline in your equity portfolio!
While that may sound extreme, 40%+ declines have occurred 3 times over the past 45 years.
In bear markets or times of market volatility, I often see people jump out to cut their losses. Bailing in a bear market is a bad thing to do. More often than not people sell close to the bottom.
By preparing yourself mentally for a big loss, you can avoid selling near the bottom and actually do the opposite/smart thing: invest.
2. Hold dry powder (cash)
While I am not recommending people time the market, I think it is a smart idea to hold extra cash in a potential downturn.
I think cash is an underrated investment. I always hear concerns about losing out on inflation or missing out on three of four more years of a bull market. In my experience, fear of missing out is a big fallacy. I’ve lost more money chasing returns than I have keeping it safe in cash or other low-risk investments.
Holding extra cash serves several purposes. First, you never know when or if you might be laid off (especially in a recession) or might need additional liquidity for everyday expenses. It’s good to have an emergency fund available for unforeseen events.
Second, having dry powder to buy more of the market in a downturn is great. Volatility should be embraced and taken advantage of.
I always keep a little extra cash around to deploy in a bear market. I view it as “the market being on sale.” A lot of people rush out to buy clothes or appliances or TVs when they are on sale. Why should the stock market be any different?
3. Identify companies you want to own
Any readers manage a portion of their net worth through an active portfolio? Have you ever looked at some company and thought wow, they have a good product, great management team, and always execute on goals, but the valuation is just a bit too rich?
Well a bear market is a perfect time to pick up stocks “on sale”! Think of it as an after-Thanksgiving Black Friday sale.
Come up with a list of companies you’d love to own and if they crash in the next bear market, pick some up. I have a few in mind already!
Conclusion
While no one knows when the next one will occur, there are many strategies we can implement today to survive the next bear market. Surviving (and thriving) through a bear market is all about preparation. The biggest advice I can give is keep your cool and don’t make decisions based on emotions.
Readers, I would love to hear how you’re preparing for the next bear market (whenever it may come), if at all! Let me know in the comments below!
My husband and I were just discussing this last night. Though we didn’t have a ton of money in the market in 2008, it was enough to lose tens of thousands of dollars. And we didn’t pull out, we just stopped looking at the balance for several months (any way you cut it’s hard to watch that money disappear). After surviving that and coming out just fine, I think I can do it again. We have a decent emergency fund and are prepared to take some losses.
Great tip. I think most people (including myself) check account balances way too much haha!
Glad you two made it out of the last one :)! Making it through your first bear market is probably the toughest.
I have around twenty companies on my watchlist and hold enough cash to take advantage of a significant drop of the market. My portfolio survived the burst of the dot-com bubble, the financial crisis, the so-called euro-crisis, Brexit and so on. Hindsight it is always the same: I wish I had bought much more of quality stocks when they were on sale. But when markets keep significantly dropping for months and months I start getting nervous and I still find it hard to throw money into the market when it seems immediately evaporating.
I completely agree, the emotional side is the key factor. Great read.
Cheers
Wow you’ve been through quite the roller coaster haha. Very impressive!
I think everyone gets nervous when the market drops. I know the feeling too well: fear of pulling the trigger when quality stocks are “on sale.” Sometimes I hear people say “this stock would be a steal” at $x price, but when it stock hits that price, they never pull the trigger (I’ve been guilty of this too).
Thanks for stopping by and good luck managing through the next bear market!
We’re not doing much because I tend to take the passive approach. I am moving more into safer investments, but part of that just happens to be coincidence as I’ve hit an inflection point in our total net worth where I need to take a bit less risk. I’m doing this not through asset sales, but through allocated more of my new money to safer bets like mortgage principle.
Being safe is great, better than losing money 🙂
I’m a little bit more aggressive with my risk because I’m still building wealth. At some point I’ll probably be more conservative.
While I’m not trying to time the market. We do have some cash available if the market tanks. We were planning to use it when we moved in the next five years. But if the stock market crashes I’d be inclined to take the money and buy cheap stocks 🙂 I’ve been stock piling the cash since August 2014 and have bought as recently as February 2016 when the market started to tank. So we’re definitely ready if it comes to it.
That’s great! I’ve been hoarding a little cash recently too; more than my typical cushion. In some ways I want the market to drop so I can get stuff “on sale” haha
With the extra cash I’ve actually been thinking about alternative investments outside of stocks/bonds. Will probably write a post about it soon!
Great article! And thanks for referring to us.
We are not that long in the game, but hitting in a bear market would get us much higher results on the long run. So we would survive 😉 We’re not waiting out though, we just keep on investing.
A lot of talks in Europe also tend to treat the possibility (one of many) that with all the manipulation in the markets by the FED or ECB a correction is only being postponed. And the longer the markets will be ‘inflated’, the harder the bigger the correction will be.
Whatever happens, the markets will continue to entertain us.
No problem, thanks for stopping by! Always happy to refer great content 🙂
Yep I definitely agree with that assessment. Central banks are just too afraid to “pull the band aid off”. Only time will tell what happens!